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Baird: Shipments to Track ’11 Retail Demand

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March 30, 2011 by   Leave a Comment

Baird logoEditor’s Note: Robert W. Baird & Co. issued a client newsletter following the release of the February wholesale shipments report by the Recreation Vehicle Industry Association (RVIA). Excerpts from the Baird newsletter follow.

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February shipments up 1%. Total RV shipments increased 1% in February, as motorhome shipments increased 6%, while towable shipments were flat. Growth decelerated versus recent months; however, this was expected. Dealer inventory is in good shape and we expect shipments growth to closely track retail demand.

Summary

Total RV shipments show slight growth in February. Overall shipments grew 1% in February following 15% growth last month. The deceleration was expected given difficult comps and healthy dealer inventory levels. Dealers have built normal seasonal inventory ahead of the busy spring selling months and for the remainder of the year we expect wholesale shipments to track in line with retail demand.

Motorhome shipments increased 6%. Class A shipments increased 10%, while Class C shipments were flat. We expect modest motorhome shipment growth into spring against difficult comps, with possible upside from better retail.

Towable shipments flat. Travel trailer shipments declined 2%, while fifth-wheel shipments grew 4%. Year-to-date towable shipments are up 6%.

SAAR. We calculate a seasonally adjusted annual rate of shipments. The SAAR of motorhome shipments fell modestly to 24.1K units in February, from 24.7K units in January — 23.6K units were shipped in 2010. The SAAR of towable shipments increased to 207.5K units in February, from 194.4K units in January — 199.2K units were shipped in 2010.

This summary of a Baird research report is not intended as investment advice. To participate in Baird surveys and receive research reports, contact Craig R. Kennison, CFA, at ckennison@rwbaird.com.

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