Baird: Spring Demand to Determine MH Outlook
Editor’s Note: Robert W. Baird & Co. issued a client newsletter to investors following the January motorhome sales report from Statistical Surveys Inc. The following offers a summary of the results.
U.S. motorhome retail declined in January. Motorhome retail sales fell 7%, according to Statistical Surveys. The drop in demand follows two consecutive months of double-digit growth, but keep in mind the November-January period is the seasonally weakest period for motorhome retail. Shipments have been down in recent months, and we believe inventories are lean. Demand during the more significant spring season should determine the shipment outlook for 2012.
• Motorhome retail registrations in the U.S. fell 7% in January. Class A registrations dropped 11%, while Class C registrations grew 1%. Recall that SSI data are frequently revised upward.
• Retail SAAR. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of U.S. motorhome retail registrations for January before revisions, fell to 17.1K units, from 21.5K units in December. In 2011, U.S. dealers sold 19.8K motorhomes (before revisions).
• Dealer inventory. Motorhome dealer inventory bottomed a year ago, inventory built in 2010, and in 2011 wholesale unit shipments roughly matched retail sales. Channel inventory increased again in January, as dealers stock units ahead of the spring season.
This summary of a Baird research report is not intended as investment advice. To participate in Baird surveys and receive research reports, contact Craig R. Kennison, CFA, at firstname.lastname@example.org.