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‘Street’ Analysts Anticipating Big Navistar Loss

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September 5, 2012 by   Leave a Comment

Editor’s Note: The following story appeared in the Wall Street Journal:

Navistar International Corp.  will unveil its latest earnings on Thursday, Sept. 6. Navistar International produces International brand commercial and military trucks, MaxxForce brand diesel engines, IC Bus brand school and commercial buses, Navistar (formerly Monaco) RV brands of recreational vehicles and Workhorse brand chassis.

Navistar International Corporation Earnings Preview Cheat Sheet

Wall St. Earnings Expectations: The average estimate of analysts is for a loss of $1.21 per share, a swing from net income of 79 cents in the year-earlier quarter. During the past three months, the average estimate has moved down from $1.81. Between one and three months ago, the average estimate moved down. It also has dropped from 20 cents during the last month. For the year, analysts are projecting net loss of $3.04 per share, a swing from profit of $5.28 last year.

Past Earnings Performance: The company is hoping to beat estimates after missing the mark for two straight quarters. Last quarter, it reported a loss of $1.99 per share against an estimate of net income of 65 cents per share. The quarter before that, it missed forecasts by $1.83.

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A Look Back: In the second quarter, the company swung to a loss of $172 million ($2.50 a share) from a profit of $74 million (93 cents) a year earlier, missing analyst expectations. Revenue remained stable at $3.3 billion.

Wall St. Revenue Expectations: Analysts are projecting a decline of 16.1% in revenue from the year-earlier quarter to $2.97 billion.

Stock Price Performance: Between July 6, 2012, and Aug. 31, 2012, the stock price had fallen $2.44 (-10%), from $24.42 to $21.98. The stock price saw one of its best stretches over the last year between July 24, 2012, and Aug. 1, 2012, when shares rose for seven straight days, increasing 7.6% (+$1.75) over that span. It saw one of its worst periods between Nov. 11, 2011 and Nov. 25, 2011, when shares fell for 10 straight days, dropping 18.5% (-$7.65) over that span.

Balance Sheet Analysis: The company’s current ratio of assets to liabilities came in at 1.35 last quarter. The current ratio is an indication of a firm’s liquidity and ability to meet creditor demands and generally, for every dollar the company owes in the short term, it has that figure available in assets that can be converted to cash in the short term. The company regressed in this liquidity measure from 1.53 in the first quarter to the last quarter driven in part by an increase in liabilities. Current liabilities increased 11.8% to $4.72 billion while assets decreased 1.3% to $6.38 billion.

Analyst Ratings: There are mostly holds on the stock with 10 of 15 analysts surveyed giving that rating.

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