Editor’s Note: Robert W. Baird & Co. recently partnered with the Recreation Vehicle Dealers Association (RVDA) to contact 116 RV dealers to assess trends during the first quarter. The following is a summary of the results.
RV momentum improves sequentially: Weather hampered retail traffic and demand early in the quarter, though dealers noted sequential improvements. Inventory remains balanced in motorhomes and towables, supporting parity between retail and wholesale going forward. Big picture, we believe the wealth effect is releasing pent-up demand for RVs, supporting our favorable fundamental outlook – though we are biased toward later-cycle exposure (motorhomes).
Retail improves sequentially: Dealers reported growth in motorhomes (+14-16%) and towables (+4-6%) in the January-March period. While traffic trends were abysmal in January and February – during the height of the Polar Vortex – traffic improved materially in March. Although the results are not a surprise, given the overlap with already-reported results from Winnebago and Thor, the sequential improvement is encouraging – especially given recent weather and reports from other discretionary categories (boats).
Inventory is balanced: Dealer inventory appears balanced in motorhomes and towables, as inventory levels appear essentially in line with levels last year. Based on anecdotal commentary, dealers still appear willing to stock incremental units – as many dealers believe that weather created significant pent-up demand – and are concerned that long lead times will result in insufficient inventory to satisfy an inflection in retail demand.
Sentiment improves sequentially: The Baird/RVDA dealer sentiment index improved from seasonal lows, as dealers become increasingly optimistic about the spring selling season. The 3-5 year outlook remained above 70 for the eighth consecutive quarter (73), and the measure of current conditions improved dramatically as well (from 57 to 64). Net, dealers remain optimistic at this point in the cycle and see a pathway to a strong retail season as weather improves.
Credit: Credit trends remain favorable, in aggregate, though conditions decelerated from our prior survey. While we think credit still provides a tailwind at this point in the cycle, we believe it is a trend worth watching, particularly as dealer commentary on credit conditions becomes incrementally negative.
Outlook: Big picture, we continue to believe an emerging wealth effect is releasing pent-up demand. Towable retail has reached 90% of prior peak volume, while motorhome retail has recovered to just under 50% of prior peak – a trend that favors motorhomes over towables.
Dealers of recreational vehicles are increasing their inventory levels this year in anticipation of a strong selling season, according to GE Capital’s Commercial Distribution Finance (CDF) business, a leading provider of financing to the industry. That comes on the heels of a very positive 2013, when total wholesale shipments exceeded that of the prior year by more than 12%.
“Dealers are increasing their orders over last year’s levels, indicating continued confidence when it comes to consumer demand,” said Tim Hyland, president of CDF’s RV group. “Despite the distractions of politics, weather and healthcare in 2013, the RV industry surged ahead. We expect growth to continue through the spring and summer of 2014, even though some of these headwinds remain.”
CDF tracks trends in the RV industry related to inventory finance through its network of independent dealers, then reports on those trends to create awareness and understanding of market dynamics.
One measure to watch is inventory turn, which remained well above a healthy rate of 2.0X through year-end. The turn ratio reflects the number of times a dealer’s inventory is sold and replaced over a period of time, typically annually.
Aging, the ratio of financed inventory less than a year old to the amount of inventory greater than a year old, is also an indication of dealer health. RV aging has steadily declined over the past two years and remains under 10%, indicative of a healthy portfolio in aggregate.
CDF has supported the RV industry with flexible inventory financing products for more than 30 years. Inventory financing, also known as floorplan financing, allows dealers to stock, market and sell a wide variety of products from RV manufacturers. It provides manufacturers and their dealer customers with a robust array of performance statistics, which are available via CDF’s proprietary online business intelligence tools.
RV dealers are expecting big things this year, according to results from a Recreation Vehicle Dealers Association (RVDA) survey conducted in late January to early February.
In the March issue of RV Executive Today, RVDA reported that after a good 2013, the majority of survey respondents are expecting 2014 to be even better. Specifically, 68% of dealers who participated in the survey feel the outlook for the retail market this year will be better than it was in 2013. Another 32% believe the market will be about the same as it was last year.
The only area of concern to dealers as they head into spring is the size of inventories. Forty-five percent of respondents feel their inventory levels are too high, 50% believe inventories are the right size and 5% feel they’re too low.
The optimism about 2014 comes after a solid recovery in 2013. Fifty-nine percent of respondents said last year’s retail market was better than it was in 2012 and 41% felt it was the same. No dealers said 2013 was worse than 2012.
All of the survey participants believe towable RV and motorhome sales will either be better in 2013, or at least the same. Seventy-seven percent believe towable sales will be better than in 2013 and 23% believe they will be about the same. Fifty-nine percent felt motorhome sales will improve from last year, while 41% are expecting no change.
The vast majority of dealers in the survey feel adequate amounts of both wholesale and retail credit are available. Ninety-five percent say there’s sufficient floorplan credit, and 86% feel there’s plenty of retail credit for their customers.
RV wholesale shipments tracked by the Recreation Vehicle Industry Association (RVIA) reached 321,127 units in 2013, a gain of 12.4% over the previous year. This was nearly twice the annual total of 2009 and marked the fourth consecutive annual increase since the end of the last recession for the RV industry. Monthly totals saw wholesale deliveries climb 14.3% in December, rising to 21,676 units in the latest survey of manufacturers. This was the largest December total in six years and marked the 24th consecutive monthly increase dating back to December 2011. Seasonally adjusted, the December 2013 total was at an annualized rate of nearly 350,000 units. Towable shipments were at 18,776 units, up 11.6% over this same month last year while motorhome totals surged 35.3% to 2,900 units in the final month of 2013.
As far as RV shipments go, the national numbers are borderline robust for September in the recently released survey by the Reston, Va.-based Recreation Vehicle Industry Association (RVIA).
The South Bend (Ind.) Tribune reported that not only is the number of shipments up 18.6% over September of 2012, it was the best September in the last six years. It also marks the 21st straight month that shipments have topped the corresponding month from the previous year.
The news is especially important to Elkhart County and nearby areas that account for 83% of all new RVs made in the United States. About 24,000 people in Elkhart County and northern Indiana work in the industry.
“We continue to be impressed with the resilience of our industry,” said Matt Rose, director of recreation vehicles for Indiana Manufactured Housing Association-Recreation Vehicle Indiana Council (IMHA-RVIC). “Consistently strong shipments mean more people than ever are making an investment in their leisure time and their families. Increased shipments of RVs equates to more jobs for northern Indiana families.”
At Great Lakes RV Center in Elkhart, the shipment numbers were not a surprise. The dealership is experiencing great business like the rest of the industry, said Rob Reid, president of Great Lakes RV Center.
Nationally, towable RVs rose nearly 2,500 units or 14.8% in September compared to the same month last year. Motorhome shipments were up 46.3% with a total of 3,317 units shipped.
In addition to some used motorhomes, Great Lakes RV Center sells towables, mainly from the Heartland brand.
“It’s been a good array from entry-level lightweight travel trailers all the way up to the $80,000 to $90,000 fifth-wheels,” said Reid, whose dealership also sells some Keystone products.
To read the entire article click here.
Editor’s Note: The following story, appearing in the latest digital issue of RV Executive Today, reports on results from the Recreation Vehicle Dealers Association’s (RVDA) latest RV Business Survey.
RV dealers were a little more cautious in their outlook as of midsummer compared with the same time last year, according to the latest RVDA survey, which was conducted in late July and early August.
Some 56% of the dealers surveyed said their inventory levels were “just right,” the same percentage who felt that way a year earlier. However, 25% of respondents said their inventory levels were too high while a year earlier only 16% had the same response. Nineteen percent of dealers said inventories were too low compared to 28% last year.
As far as ordering plans are concerned, 25% of the dealers who responded said they planned to order more RVs during the second half of 2013 than they did during the second half of 2012. Last year, 36% of dealers said they planned to order more during the second half of 2012 than they did during the same portion of 2011.
An even 50% of dealers who responded to the midsummer 2013 survey planned to order “about the same” number of RVs during the second half of 2013 as they did during the second half of 2012. A year ago, 20% planned to order the same number as they did during the second half of 2011. The percentage planning to order fewer units stayed about the same – 19% in 2013 and 20% in 2012. Six percent of dealers were undecided as of midsummer 2013, while 24% were undecided a year earlier.
Towable market still in good shape
A slight majority of midsummer survey respondents – 53% – said the retail market for towable RVs was better than it was a year ago. Another 40% of respondents said their towable sales were about the same as a year earlier, and only 7% said they were worse.
During the midsummer of 2012, 72% of dealers said their towable sales were better than they were a year earlier, 20% believed they were the same, and 8% said they were worse.
Although still not as robust as the towable sector, the motorhome business showed significant improvement during the past year. Twenty-nine percent of dealers said it was better as of midsummer 2013, while only 14% said it was better in midsummer of 2012. Another 29% said the motorhome business was worse as of midsummer 2013, a slight increase over the 24% who believed the same as of midsummer 2012.
Forty-three percent of dealers said their motorhome sales as of midsummer 2013 were about the same as a year earlier; a year earlier, 62% said motorhome sales were about the same as the prior year.
Retail Financing Availability Improves
There was a slight improvement in the availability of retail credit between 2013 and 2012, according to the dealers responding to the survey. Eighty percent of dealers who responded in midsummer 2013 said the right amount of retail credit was available for their customers, compared with 72% a year earlier.
Almost all dealers – 94% – said in the latest survey that there was an adequate amount of wholesale financing available, compared with 96% who felt that way the year prior.
Wholesale shipments of all RVs continued at a torrid pace in July where manufacturers reported a total of 26,212 units for the month, an increase of 14.7% ahead of the same month one year ago. Conventional and fifth-wheel travel trailers and Class A and Class C motorhomes grew the most with truck campers and Class B motorhomes off slightly.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, wholesale shipments in July were at an annualized rate of more than 339,000 units, nearly 12% greater than the previous month and ahead of this same month last year by more than 14%. Through July, manufacturers have reported a total of 201,120 units shipped to retailers, up 13.1% over this same period last year.
This summer, more families seem to be gassing up recreational vehicle than ever before.
Trent Fink, of Fink’s Custom Vans & RV Center in Zanesville, Ohio, said lower lodging costs associated with RV travel are appealing to more people in the current economy, according to a report in the Newark Advocate.
“I talked to some people who took their camper out and paid like $12, $13 a night,” Fink said. “You can vacation year-round, and you save on a lot of hotel rooms.”
Fink said his sales seem to be down “but we get our fair share,” noting rentals of RVs also are becoming popular.
Fink’s Larry Pletcher said he’s also heard people complaining about the high price of hotel stays and said taking an RV out is becoming a popular, cost-saving alternative.
“When you get done paying for it, it’s yours. A lot of people find someplace to park it, and that becomes their spot to go to every year,” Pletcher said. “There’s also concern over bed bugs in hotels. You don’t have to worry about who slept there the night before and the night before that in your own RV.”
Some businesses, such as Grubb Hitch, Trailer & RV Center have seen an increase in sales among people looking for service and accessories for their RVs.
“We’ve had trailers and RVs lined up,” said Scott Blumenstock, Grubb’s owner. “People are dedicated to them; they love to take these things out.”
Although Grubb doesn’t sell RVs, Blumenstock said an increased interest in rentals — the closest RV rental is at Stoney’s RV near Cambridge — has him considering adding rentals in the future. Other RV retailers around the state are noting sales increases.
Ryan Meeks, sales manager at Craig Smith RV Center in Galion, said RV sales are up from 2012.
“We’re off to a very good start,” he said. “I think a lot of it is due to the improvement in the economy — people having more confidence and people starting to spend money on things they really enjoy.”
To read the entire article click here.
There are expectations that this year’s Midwest RV Super Show just might have its best year since before the 2007-2009 recession, according to a report in the Goshen (Ind.) News.
As one-ton pickups pulling luxury fifth-wheels and travel trailers arrived at the RV/MH Hall of Fame off C.R. 17 in Elkhart this week, organizers and dealer staffs were busy directing drivers to the right display areas.
“Last year was big,” said Chad Shepard of Pete’s RV Center in Schererville. He and the Pete’s staff were busy placing their Keystone Cougar fifth-wheels and Forest River Vengeance toy hauler RVs in just the right spots in the display area east of the RV/MH Hall. “It was real strong. This year we are hoping for even better. The market is really, really strong,” he added.
Typifying the industry’s growth, Thor Industries Inc. reported record sales for its fourth quarter, which ended July 31. In addition, the Recreation Vehicle Industry Association (RVIA) reported that July RV sales nationwide rose 12.8% in the first six months of this year.
That robust gain is very good news for the show’s organizers, the Indiana Manufacturing Housing Association-Recreation Vehicle Industry Council (IMHA-RVIC).
“We will be having close to 300,” said Matt Rose of the number of RVs that will be on display. Rose oversees the several Indiana RV shows sponsored by the IMHA-RVIC. “Last year we had eight dealers. This year we have 13.”
That gain in dealerships is good news for consumers, who want to see and compare RVs at one location.
To read the entire article click here.
If you want to put the current RV shipment numbers in perspective, look only to 2009, according to a report in the South Bend (Ind.) Tribune. Yes, 2009 was the worst year for the recreational vehicle industry since 1982, with just 165,700 RVs being shipped.
And yes, RV shipment numbers have gone up each year since 2009 with this June being the 18th straight month that shipments beat the same month of the previous year.
Still, having shipment numbers through six months this year already substantially greater than all of recession-affected 2009 is noteworthy.
Through June 30, 174,871 units have been shipped, according to the latest release by the Reston, Va.-based Recreation Vehicle Industry Association (RVIA). That mark is also 12.8% higher than the midway point of 2012.
Total monthly wholesale shipments to retailers of all RVs this June were reported at 30,856 units, an increase of 12.1% compared with the same month in 2012.
“I always say that the RV market is a reflection of consumer confidence,” said Mark Bowersox, executive director of the Recreation Vehicle Indiana Council. “Look where the stock market is. Fuel prices have been consistent. It hasn’t jumped over $4 a gallon repeatedly. They’ve been stable.
“By most statistics,” he added, “the economy is getting better.”
The fear of sequestration and the cutting of $85 billion from the federal budget from March through September never even affected the industry –– just as Bowersox accurately predicted –– in early March.
“Americans have become more comfortable at being uncomfortable,” Bowersox said then and again Monday in a phone interview.
The Tribune reported that the industry is not expected to slow down any time soon. Revised predictions for 2013, have the industry shipping just less than 310,000 units. That would mark the first time since 2007 (about 353,400 were shipped that year) that the total has reached 300,000.
To read the entire article click here.